Week 5

Houston is a 7-point favorite in Tennessee with a low 38.5 total, and our model doesn't see much room for Woody Marks to run: it projects 29.5 rushing yards and puts this matchup in its lowest tier for a running back. His 2026 log tells the same story. He's run for 42, 8, 15 and 22 yards, staying under 36.5 in three of four games and in four of his last five going back to last postseason. Two of the three outside projection models we track also land below the line (25.6 and 33.8), and running-back rushing-yard unders that pass our rules went 6-1 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

The risk is game script. A 7-point favorite can lean on the run to close out a game, Sleeper is higher at 39.3, and Marks went over 36.5 in both of his previous games against Tennessee and in five of seven against defenses that profile like this one. That's why the cushion matters: we locked in 34.5 early in the week, and the market has since moved up to 36.5, a number that still clears every rule we have. Nashville's forecast is a non-factor (mostly dry, around 70 degrees, 10 mph wind). Our model makes the under about a 60% play against a 53.5% break-even at -115. The play: Marks under 36.5 rushing yards.

Minnesota is a 2.5-point favorite in New Orleans with a 41.5 total, and the game is indoors, so weather is off the table. Our model projects Aaron Jones Sr. for 58.5 rushing yards, 14 short of this line, and he has finished under 72.5 in five of his last nine games. Sleeper (70.1) and one other projection model we track (63.5) also sit below the number, and running-back rushing-yard unders that pass our rules went 6-1 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

This one runs hot and cold, so here's the risk up front: Jones has gone for 40, 105, 58 and 94 this season, and a third model has him at 75.0. He was limited in practice Friday with no game designation, and the Vikings list both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison as questionable after limited practices; if the receivers sit, Minnesota could lean harder on the run. Our model still makes the under about a 65% play against a 53.5% break-even at -115. The play: Jones under 72.5 rushing yards.

Denver is a 3.5-point favorite against the Chargers with a 41.5 total, and our model projects RJ Harvey for just 16.5 receiving yards, making the under a 69% play at 28.5. The deeper numbers line up behind it: Harvey has stayed under this line in seven of 10 games against defenses that profile like the Chargers', and in both of his previous meetings with them. All three outside projection models we track sit below 28.5 (22.7, 24.7 and 27.5), and running-back receiving-yard unders that pass our rules went 11-2 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

The knock is recent form. After 23 yards in Week 1, he's posted 41 and 68 in his last two games, so this bet leans on the matchup and the projections rather than the trend. We took 26.5 at -110 earlier in the week; the market has since moved to 28.5 at -115, and the higher line still passes every rule we have, with all three projections on our side. At -115 the break-even is 53.5%. The play: Harvey under 28.5 receiving yards.

Cleveland visits the Jets as a 2.5-point underdog in a 39.5-total game, and the East Rutherford forecast calls for rain: a 60% chance at kickoff, rising to 77% through the afternoon, with an east wind of 10 to 12 mph. Our model projects Raheim Sanders for 6.5 receiving yards and makes the under a 65% play at 13.5. He's finished under 12.5 in six of his last eight games, and running-back receiving-yard unders that pass our rules went 11-2 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

The outside projections lean our way without being unanimous: one model has him at 5.1 and Sleeper at 12.2, both under, while a third sits at 13.4. His 2026 log has alternated (25, 7, 34 and 7), and Cleveland has ruled out receiver Tylan Wallace and tight end Carsen Ryan, which could push a few extra short targets to the backfield. That's the risk we're pricing; a wet, low-total game is the offset. At -115 the break-even is 53.5%. The play: Sanders under 12.5 receiving yards.

Cincinnati is a 7-point favorite in Miami with a 43.5 total and a hot forecast (around 90 degrees). Ollie Gordon II has barely figured in the passing game: he's finished under 10.5 receiving yards in eight of his last nine games, with zero yards in seven of them, and he stayed under in his one previous game against Cincinnati. Our model projects just 4.5 receiving yards, rates the matchup as poor for a running back catching passes, and makes the under about a 63% play. Running-back receiving-yard unders that pass our rules went 11-2 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

Two of the three outside projection models we track agree (6.5 and 10.3); Sleeper is the outlier at 15.0. The main thing to watch is the depth chart: fellow running back Jaylen Wright is questionable after a limited practice, and if he sits, Gordon's role could grow. Miami has also ruled out tight end Justin Joly and receiver Caleb Douglas. One line note: the market has moved to 9.5 since we bet it, and our rules only clear this at 10.5, so we'd pass at 9.5. The play: Gordon under 10.5 receiving yards (-115, a 53.5% break-even).

Same game, second angle: Minnesota at New Orleans, indoors, with a 41.5 total. Our model projects Aaron Jones Sr. for 11.5 receiving yards, rates the matchup as poor for a running back catching passes, and makes the under about a 65% play at 19.5. Sleeper (15.3) and another projection model we track (16.9) also sit under 18.5, and running-back receiving-yard unders that pass our rules went 11-2 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

Here's the honest part: after back-to-back zeros to open the season, Jones has 34 receiving yards in each of his last two games, and a third model has him at 20.3. He was limited in Friday's practice, and with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison both questionable, Minnesota could lean on its backs in the passing game if either receiver sits. The projections and the matchup are why we're here; the recent trend is the risk. This pairs with our Jones rushing under, so both tickets want a quiet day from him. At -115 the break-even is 53.5%. The play: Jones under 18.5 receiving yards.

San Francisco visits Seattle as a 3-point underdog with a 45.5 total, and the forecast is clear (sunny, around 60 degrees). Our model projects Deebo Samuel for just 1.5 rushing yards, makes the under a 75% play at 9.5, and rates the matchup as poor for him on the ground. His history backs it up: he's finished under 9.5 in six of his last 10 games, in three of four against defenses that profile like Seattle's, and in two of three meetings with the Seahawks. All three outside projection models we track agree (4.0, 5.6 and 9.1), and wide-receiver rushing-yard unders that pass our rules went 4-1 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

The risk is a carry or two we can't predict. Samuel has topped this number in three of four games this season (12, 14 and 44), and on a line this small, one designed run can decide it. Christian McCaffrey practiced in full with no designation, and receiver Mike Evans was limited. The best price we found is about -126, a 55.8% break-even, well under our model's number. The play: Samuel under 9.5 rushing yards.

Seattle hosts San Francisco as a 3-point favorite with a 45.5 total in clean weather (sunny, around 60 degrees), and our model rates this as a great matchup for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, its top tier for a receiver. He's caught 8, 9, 10 and 5 passes this season, clearing 6.5 in three of four games and in six of his last 10. All three outside projection models we track are over the number (7.6, 6.7 and 7.3), and wide-receiver reception overs that pass our rules went 11-3 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

Our model's own projection is tighter, at 6.5 catches, making the over about a 54% play, so this is a volume bet backed by the matchup and the outside projections. The main caution: the 49ers have held him under 6.5 in three of his last five meetings. He practiced in full Friday with no designation. The best price we found is -121 (a 54.8% break-even); sportsbooks are at -130 (56.5%), the most we'd lay. The play: Smith-Njigba over 6.5 receptions.

Buffalo visits the Rams on Monday night as a 3-point underdog in the highest-total game on this list (54.5). Our model projects Josh Allen for 5.6 rush attempts and makes the under a 69% play at 7.5, and he's stayed under 7.5 in three of four games against defenses that profile like the Rams'. All three outside projection models we track sit below the line (6.9, 7.1 and 7.47), and quarterback rush-attempt unders that pass our rules went 17-9 in our model's review of Weeks 1 to 4.

This season he's at 6, 14, 8 and 5 attempts, under in two of four, so a 14-attempt game like Week 2's is the risk, along with late kneel-downs, which count as rush attempts; playing as an underdog usually means fewer of those. Bills receiver DJ Moore did not practice Friday, and Buffalo's Saturday report hadn't posted when we ran this, so check it before betting. At -110 the break-even is 52.4%. The play: Allen under 7.5 rush attempts.