How we count

Our numbers mean nothing if the rules move. These don't.

The rules

1. 1

   One unit per pick. Every pick counts as one unit risked, so bigger bets on the winners can't pad the record.

2. 2

   Odds as posted. We grade every pick at the odds we published when we posted it. The closing price is shown separately and never used for grading.

3. 3

   Posted before the event. Our server timestamps every pick when it's posted, before the event starts. The timestamp can't be edited.

4. 4

   Nothing deleted. Wins, losses and pushes all stay on the record.

5. 5

   Pushes and voids. A push counts as zero units. A cancelled or voided event is marked void and doesn't count.

6. 6

   Every tier counts. We publish the record for The Short List, for Full Slate, and for everything combined.

7. 7

   Sports covered: [list].

8. 8

   Corrections. If we make a grading error, we fix it and note the change. Email [corrections email].

Definitions

Pick curator:

someone who selects a few picks from many sources instead of sending everything.

Provenance:

a pick's documented history. Ours is the time we posted it, the odds, the closing price and the result.

Why it made the cut:

the one-line reason a pick is on the list.

Unit:

a standard bet size. We count one unit per pick.

ROI:

units won ÷ units risked.

Breakeven:

the win rate you need to break even at a given price. At −110 it's 52.4%. At −113 it's 53.1%.

Cohort:

a group of picks that share the same conditions.

Scouting Board method

Same rules as ours, built from the publicly posted picks of each picks seller, analytics company and model we track, over the same date range as our record. Experts are shown anonymized until our tracking of them is complete and reviewed.

Sources for the benchmark on Home

1. TopEndSports, betting ROI guide
2. Networked, "A view from the Pinnacle" (even elite bettors usually make low single-digit returns)